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Single-Record File

AARO UAP Reporting Trends Chart

Single-Record File: Only one inspectable record is attached. It documents a source or allegation but cannot independently corroborate the broader claim.
OverviewEvidenceTimelineAnalysisSources
2023-11-21
Pentagon, Arlington, Virginia, USA
8/10
3/10
Statistical slides document that reported UAPs are primarily round/spherical (52%), operate at altitudes of 10,000 to 30,000 feet, and have hotspots in specific military operational areas.
Strong for official statistical compiling. Weak for physical structural details.

Investigative Assessments

"The reported claim remains worth testing against the record: Statistical slides document that reported UAPs are primarily round/spherical (52%), operate at altitudes of 10,000 to 30,000 feet, and have hotspots in specific military operational areas. The strongest documented reasons to keep the file open are: AARO UAP Reporting Trends slide: It details the morphology, altitude, and hotspot statistics of reported UAPs.. Key unresolved lead: What specific military installations correspond to the hotspots in the data?"
"Evidentiary limitations: Strong for official statistical compiling. Weak for physical structural details. Note that: AARO UAP Reporting Trends slide fails to support: It indicates that only a very small percentage of reports exhibit truly anomalous flight characteristics.."

Case Summary

This case review analyzes the official record from the National Archives, documenting the AARO UAP Reporting Trends Chart and related administrative or observation events. This pilot synopsis is an intake summary requiring source-by-source verification.

Evidence Locker

1 inspectable evidence item. Claims and source findings are kept separate.

Official Briefing Slide Local copy hash-verified

AARO UAP Reporting Trends slide

Analyst rating: High authenticity as a statistical chart released by AARO

“A L L - D O M A I N A N O M A LY R E S O LU T I O N O F F I C E ... UAP Reporting Trends 1996- November 20, 2023 ... REPORTED-UAP ALTITUDES ... TYPICALLY-REPORTED UAP CHARACTERISTICS ... REPORTED UAP-MORPHOLOGY ... REPORTED-UAP HOTSPOTS...”
Record locationPDF page 1
Evidence classOfficial Briefing Slide
Relationship to claimSummarizes the physical signature statistics across the historical case database.
Authenticity assessmentOfficial OSD document cleared for open publication by DOPSR.
What this supportsIt details the morphology, altitude, and hotspot statistics of reported UAPs.
What it does not supportIt indicates that only a very small percentage of reports exhibit truly anomalous flight characteristics.
ProvenanceAcquired from the NARA Record Group 615, Office of the Secretary of Defense.
Chain of custodyOSD files -> NARA bulk archive -> remote VPS copy.
Open Document (Local PDF Document) Download Copy Canonical Agency Record

Documented Timeline

Not documented: No source-verified chronology has been assembled.

Named Participants and Roles

Not documented: Named participants and roles have not been source-verified.

Contradictions and Record Conflicts

Not documented: Record conflicts have not been analyzed.

Conventional Explanations

Not documented: Conventional explanations have not been evaluated against evidence.

Missing Evidence

Not documented: The evidence gap itself has not yet been fully inventory.

What Remains Unresolved

Not documented: No source-level unresolved findings have been established.

Investigative Hypotheses

  • Sensor sensitivity and operational flight envelopes bias the data towards the 10,000 to 30,000 feet range.
  • Round spherical shapes represent the most common signature of unresolved objects in military radar.

Open Questions

  • What specific military installations correspond to the hotspots in the data?
  • Has the percentage of spherical reports changed over time?

Archival Landing Pages and Evidence Corpus

NARA Record Group 615, Office of the Secretary of Defense UAP Records

Official Bulk Archive

External URL: https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468580